BoxOffice Pro has posted the long range box office forecast for John Wick: Chapter 4. After considering the Pros and Cons they forecast a three day opening weekend of $44,000,000 – $53,000,000 and a domestic box office for the theatrical run of $122,000,000 – $155,000,000.
PROS:
- Early forecasting models are well ahead of last summer’s Bullet Train ($30 million), while comparable to those of Halloween Kills ($49.4 million) and Nope ($44.4 million) — the two highest grossing R-rated debuts post-pandemic so far.
- The franchise has improved at the box office with each installment, thus far peaking at a $56.8 million domestic debut and $171 million finish in 2019.
- Male-driven action films continue to be robust at the box office in the post-pandemic era, and a full compliment of premium screens (including IMAX) should capitalize on that appeal again.
- Buzz for the expanding universe of the John Wick IP continues to drive interest in the brand overall, which is being expanded to include an upcoming Ballerina spin-off led by Ana de Armas.
CONS:
- Typically, franchises of various genres peak at the box office around the second or third entry. That’s not a hard and fast rule, but the Wick series is at least now at the age where cautionary considerations about diminishing returns should be in mind.
- The above factor is compounded by the fact that Chapter 4 opens in the middle of a month crowded by other male-driven films, putting even more importance on how word of mouth affects them all (Wick included).